Energy Market Update
Apr 03, 2025
04.03.2025
Here is a bit of breakdown as to how the so-called Liberation Day has affected the crude oil and refined products as we see it today.
Oil prices are down -6% as OPEC+ speeds up its unwinding of production cuts in May compounding already-heavy losses following Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs yesterday. There must be confidence within the cartel that the market can absorb additional barrels in a period where demand seasonally rises, but also that the supply increase would be smaller due to compensation cuts as well other supply disruptions. Oil prices were already trading some -4% lower prior to the meeting, as investors reacted to Trump's tariffs with concerns that the move would enflame a global trade war that will curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand. Yesterday Trump unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries. Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, given the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies. Eight OPEC+ countries agreed today to advance their plan for oil output hikes by increasing oil output by +411,000 b/d in May, vs earlier forecasts for a +135,000 b/d increase. This comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments. The May hike is the next increment of a plan agreed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman to gradually unwind their most recent output cut of -2.2 million b/d. The eight countries will meet again on May 5th to decide on June output. OPEC+ also has -3.65 million b/d of other output cuts in place until the end of next year to support the market.
I'd also like to remind you of our spring oil sale taking place until the end of April. The sale includes Enviro Edge 5W-40, Auto Gold 5W-30, TMS 10W-30, TMS 15W-40, and Qwiklift HTB. For a complete list of sale items given one of our energy offices a call!
Steve Gorder
Central Region Cooperative
Interim Energy Manager
Here is a bit of breakdown as to how the so-called Liberation Day has affected the crude oil and refined products as we see it today.
Oil prices are down -6% as OPEC+ speeds up its unwinding of production cuts in May compounding already-heavy losses following Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs yesterday. There must be confidence within the cartel that the market can absorb additional barrels in a period where demand seasonally rises, but also that the supply increase would be smaller due to compensation cuts as well other supply disruptions. Oil prices were already trading some -4% lower prior to the meeting, as investors reacted to Trump's tariffs with concerns that the move would enflame a global trade war that will curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand. Yesterday Trump unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries. Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, given the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies. Eight OPEC+ countries agreed today to advance their plan for oil output hikes by increasing oil output by +411,000 b/d in May, vs earlier forecasts for a +135,000 b/d increase. This comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments. The May hike is the next increment of a plan agreed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman to gradually unwind their most recent output cut of -2.2 million b/d. The eight countries will meet again on May 5th to decide on June output. OPEC+ also has -3.65 million b/d of other output cuts in place until the end of next year to support the market.
I'd also like to remind you of our spring oil sale taking place until the end of April. The sale includes Enviro Edge 5W-40, Auto Gold 5W-30, TMS 10W-30, TMS 15W-40, and Qwiklift HTB. For a complete list of sale items given one of our energy offices a call!
Steve Gorder
Central Region Cooperative
Interim Energy Manager